Views from the investment desk: information warfare and the future of critical thinking
Over the past year, we’ve been exploring the frontier of AI-driven information warfare – a space where bots don’t just hack systems, they look to shape people’s opinions. These are not theoretical risks. They’re already beginning to influence how societies think, vote and behave.
We’ve all seen how social media algorithms can amplify extreme content, often intentionally. Facebook’s own internal research found that its algorithms “exploit the human brain’s attraction to divisiveness,” nudging users toward more polarised views over time.[1] YouTube has shown similar patterns, with users starting on relatively neutral topics quickly steered toward conspiracy theories or more radical content by the platform’s recommendation engine.
But what’s less visible is the role that ‘Red Hat’ bots – bad actors that are often state-sponsored – can play in nudging the direction of public discourse. They are designed to flood social comment sections with engineered viewpoints, subtly shifting the tone of debate. Over time, exposure to this repeated messaging can alter how people perceive reality, sometimes without them even realising it. Studies have shown that bots can influence political opinions and voting behaviours by mimicking human interactions and spreading biased or false information – for example pushing anti-vaccination conspiracies during the pandemic.[2] This manipulation can lead to polarisation in society and risks tearing the social fabric that binds democracies.
Why this matters for investors
The fact that bots influence content visibility – pushing the extremes and burying the centre – is already having a visible impact. It affects everything from who gets heard in public debate to how companies, policies and people are perceived online. NATO and other government institutions are now allocating significant budgets to combatting these types of attacks. This has rapidly moved beyond the world of cybersecurity into real-world national defence. As investors in emerging and often critical cybersecurity technology, here is where the commercial opportunity lies.
Emerging technologies like large language models (LLMs) are already being used to detect these manipulation patterns. Unlike human analysts, LLMs can read hundreds of thousands of posts and pick out recurring narrative threads used by bots. That gives governments and platforms a clearer way to monitor interference at scale.
What’s even more interesting is the potential of so-called ‘White Hat’ bots – automated systems that inject factual balance into the conversation. Instead of arguing, they offer counterpoints within comment threads, helping to neutralise attempts at user manipulation. The aim isn’t to tell people what to think, but to help them think more critically by showing that there is another side to the story.
And that’s key. Because in an era where content is driven by engagement, not accuracy, the ability to interact intelligently with technology – to question it, to cross-check it for accuracy, and, where necessary, to prevent its spread – becomes essential. The value of companies that can embed this kind of cognitive resistance into digital systems is only going to grow.
Refute is a company operating at the forefront of this space, by helping organisations spot and stop disinformation campaigns before they spread. Its platform uses machine learning to trace and score the spread of coordinated narratives across digital channels, helping organisations respond to reputational threats in real time. Refute isn’t one of our portfolio companies, but it’s offering the kind of smart, defensive technology we think will only become more critical as online disinformation become more common – and more convincing.
Beyond defence – how AI is changing how we think
It’s become impossible to ignore AI, how it has changed the way we interact with technology and how deeply embedded it has become in everyday life. When we’ve got a question today, we no longer go straight to Google. We start with AI. We ask it in full sentences. We debate with it. We use it to sense-check ideas. That shift – from search engine to reasoning partner – is seismic. It changes how we think, how we learn, and how we make decisions. And we’re only at the beginning.
Investing in critical thinking
The good news is that this opens up entirely new areas of investment – not just in defence and cybersecurity, but in edtech, workforce transformation, and platforms that help users build trust in what they’re seeing. We’re looking at companies that can play a part in rebalancing the system – whether through AI-driven moderation, behavioural insight, or tools that help people to think critically and resist manipulation in real time.
It’s not easy to identify or stop bad actors, especially in a world where content comes at us faster, slicker, and is more persuasive than ever. But the technology is emerging that can create the infrastructure for digital resilience, giving people the tools to use their best judgement, rather than believing what’s in front of them.
Important information
The content of this article is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute financial promotion or investment advice. The views expressed in this article are those of the authors and can change at any time. The content of this article is provided by Triple Point. In providing this document, Triple Point undertakes no obligation to procure any additional information or to update this document or to correct any inaccuracies. Triple Point is the trading name for the Triple Point Group, which includes the following companies and associated entities: Triple Point Investment Management LLP registered in England & Wales no. OC321250, authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority no. 456597, Triple Point Administration LLP registered in England & Wales no. OC391352 and authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority no. 618187, and TP Nominees Limited registered in England & Wales no. 07839571, all of 1 King William Street, London, EC4N 7AF, UK.
[1] https://www.wsj.com/articles/facebook-knows-it-encourages-division-top-executives-nixed-solutions-11590507499
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